New-home sales just had their slowest third quarter in 28 years. So why are condo prices still rising?

Between July and September, developers sold fewer new homes than in any third quarter since 1998, according to Huttons. Yet URA's flash estimate, its early reading for the quarter, shows private residential property prices rose 1.4% over the same period, the eighth consecutive quarterly increase.

Why haven't prices followed sales down? We compared 38 recent condo launches with a basic estimate of their land and building costs. Every launch was priced above that benchmark. Meanwhile, the land under several upcoming launches has cost developers more.

Supply is part of the answer. Huttons says sales were low mainly because developers launched so few homes, fewer than in any third quarter on record. Our figures look at another part: the land under each launch.

What the land and a basic building cost

The price of a government land sale is published. Divide it across the saleable area, add a basic building cost, and you have a rough benchmark per square foot.

Take Lucerne Grand, the 570-home condo next to Lakeside MRT that launched on 3 October. City Developments paid $1,132 psf per plot ratio for the land in June 2025, or about $1,058 psf of saleable area once balconies are counted. Add about $270 psf, Rider Levett Bucknall's low-end building cost for a mid-range condo, and you get about $1,327 psf. On the launch weekend, CDL sold 350 homes at an average of $2,480 psf, 1.87 times that.

The benchmark is deliberately limited. It leaves out financing, fees, marketing, taxes and profit, and the building cost is quoted per square metre of everything built, basements and car parks included, which we haven't converted to saleable area, so it understates what building really costs per square foot of home. The gap is not the developer's profit. It shows how much higher a launch price is than this partial cost.

Every launch in our sample was priced well above it

We matched the 51 private housing sites the government sold from 2021 to 2025 with URA's record of new sales. Forty-one had launched by August 2026. Leaving out one with large shops and offices, and two that launched only in July, 38 remain. Every one was priced above its benchmark: at a median 1.83 times, and half of them between 1.71 and 1.94 times. Even the lowest, Lentor Modern, sold at 1.58 times; the highest was The Sen on De Souza Avenue, at 2.17 times. If building really cost twice our figure, every one would still be above it.

Medians of the sites whose land was sold each year. Launch price: each project's recorded new sales in its first three months.

The multiple was also higher for more recent sites, in both the suburbs and the city fringe. Suburban condos on land sold in 2021 and 2022 launched at a median 1.68 times the benchmark; those on land sold in 2024 and 2025, at 1.90 times. In the city fringe, it went from 1.72 to 2.02. So it isn't only a shift to pricier areas, though sites still differ a lot.

Huttons put last quarter's 2.2% rise in suburban condo prices partly down to new benchmarks set by launches such as Vela Bay. By our measure, Vela Bay launched at 1.83 times its land and basic building cost.

The land under the next launches costs more

The sites sold so far in 2026 have a median benchmark of $1,706 psf, against $1,513 for those sold in 2025. Part of that is location: more of this year's sites are central. But on the same streets the benchmark has risen too, and almost all of the rise is the land bid, not the building:

• Lentor Central: the land went for $982 psf per plot ratio in 2023 (Lentor Central Residences) and $1,278 in March 2026, taking the benchmark from $1,192 to $1,474 psf.
• River Valley Green: $1,325 in 2024 (River Green) and $1,730 in June 2026; benchmark $1,531, then $1,896.
• Dunearn Road: $1,410 in 2025 (Dunearn House) and $1,625 in May 2026; benchmark $1,587, then $1,798.

It isn't everywhere. On Dairy Farm Walk, land went for $980 in 2022, $1,020 in 2025 and $962 in January 2026, and the benchmark barely moved.

Here are suburban sites with no sales on record yet. The last column is only an illustration: each site's benchmark times the middle half of past multiples. It assumes the past relationship holds in a different place and market, so it is not a forecast; a launch can land outside it.

\*Includes 2,000 m² of shops. †Two separate sites, sold in separate tenders to the same buyers. No new sales recorded to August 2026.

What it means if you're buying

None of this tells you what any one launch will cost, and developers can and do offer discounts when sales are slow. Our sample shows something narrower: every included launch was priced above the benchmark, the lowest at 1.58 times, and on several streets the next launches sit on dearer land.

If a new launch stretches your budget, compare it with the resale homes nearby before deciding. Look at recorded prices for similar homes, the cash and CPF you need upfront, how much you would borrow, and what you give up by choosing an older development.

Across the suburbs, resale condos sold for a median $1,562 psf over the past year, against $2,263 for new launches. That is a broad comparison, not a like-for-like discount: resale homes are older, and some have much less lease left.

Reva puts a home's price beside recorded sales nearby and works out the cash, CPF and loan your household would need.

How we did it

For each private condo site the government sold from 2021 (URA's sale-sites data, read on 20 September 2026), we spread the land price over the saleable area, the buildable floor area plus up to 7% for balconies, and added Rider Levett Bucknall's low-end construction cost for a medium-quality condo in the year of the sale. A launch price is the median of a project's new sales recorded by URA in the three months from its first, at least 41 sales each. Seven projects were matched to their land by hand. Left out: executive condos, sites URA codes as commercial and residential (large shops or offices; ground-floor shops stay in) and two projects first sold in July 2026. The suburbs and the city fringe are URA's Outside and Rest of Central Regions. Every site, input and exclusion is in the data: download it.

Sources: URA Government Land Sales, private residential transactions and Q3 2026 flash estimate; Rider Levett Bucknall; Huttons and City Developments, as reported by EdgeProp. Reva gives information, not advice, and is not a licensed estate agent or financial adviser.